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Day-ahead electricity price forecasting using back propagation neural networks and weighted least square

S. Surender REDDY,Chan-Mook JUNG,Ko Jun SEOG

《能源前沿(英文)》 2016年 第10卷 第1期   页码 105-113 doi: 10.1007/s11708-016-0393-y

摘要: This paper proposes the day-ahead electricity price forecasting using the artificial neural networks (ANN) and weighted least square (WLS) technique in the restructured electricity markets. Price forecasting is very important for online trading, e-commerce and power system operation. Forecasting the hourly locational marginal prices (LMP) in the electricity markets is a very important basis for the decision making in order to maximize the profits/benefits. The novel approach proposed in this paper for forecasting the electricity prices uses WLS technique and compares the results with the results obtained by using ANNs. To perform this price forecasting, the market knowledge is utilized to optimize the selection of input data for the electricity price forecasting tool. In this paper, price forecasting for Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) interconnection is demonstrated using the ANNs and the proposed WLS technique. The data used for this price forecasting is obtained from the PJM website. The forecasting results obtained by both methods are compared, which shows the effectiveness of the proposed forecasting approach. From the simulation results, it can be observed that the accuracy of prediction has increased in both seasons using the proposed WLS technique. Another important advantage of the proposed WLS technique is that it is not an iterative method.

关键词: day-ahead electricity markets     price forecasting     load forecasting     artificial neural networks     load serving entities    

Nodal, zonal, or uniform electricity pricing: how to deal with network congestion

Martin WEIBELZAHL

《能源前沿(英文)》 2017年 第11卷 第2期   页码 210-232 doi: 10.1007/s11708-017-0460-z

摘要: In this paper, the main contributions to congestion management and electricity pricing, i.e., nodal, zonal, and uniform electricity pricing, are surveyed. The key electricity market concepts are structured and a formal model framework is proposed for electricity transportation, production, and consumption in the context of limited transmission networks and competitive, welfare maximizing electricity markets. In addition, the main results of existing short-run and long-run congestion management studies are explicitly summarized. In particular, the important interconnection between short-run network management approaches and optimal long-run investments in both generation facilities and network lines are highlighted.

关键词: nodal pricing     zonal pricing     uniform pricing     competitive electricity markets     welfare maximization     redispatch     optimization models    

Reactive power deployment and cost benefit analysis in DNO operated distribution electricity markets

Atma Ram GUPTA,Ashwani KUMAR

《能源前沿(英文)》 2019年 第13卷 第1期   页码 86-98 doi: 10.1007/s11708-017-0456-8

摘要: The aim of this paper is to analyze unbalanced radial distribution systems (UBRDS) with the distribution static compensator (D-STATCOM). The main objectives of this paper are D-STATCOM allocation in UBRDS with an objective of providing reactive power support to enhance voltage profile and reduce line losses of the distribution network, determination of optimal D-STATCOM rating subjected to minimization of total cost, and impact of D-STATCOM placement on improving power factor and savings in cost of energy loss. The analysis is conducted on a large industrial load model with light, medium and high loading scenarios. Further, the impact of load growth is also considered for better planning of the power distribution system. The results are obtained on standard 25-bus UBRDS to check the feasibility of the proposed methodology.

关键词: unbalanced distribution system     D-STATCOM     voltage sensitivity index     load models     load growth     distribution network operator (DNO)    

Propensity score-matched study and meta-analysis of cumulative outcomes of day 2/3 versus day 5/6 embryo

null

《医学前沿(英文)》 2017年 第11卷 第4期   页码 563-569 doi: 10.1007/s11684-017-0535-6

摘要:

The superiority of the cumulative outcomes of day 5/6 embryo transfer to those of day 2/3 embryo transfer in infertile couples has been debated. This retrospective study included data collected from 1051 patients from July 2011 to June 2014. Multiple maternal baseline covariates were subjected to propensity score matching analysis, and each day 5/6 group woman was matched to one day 2/3 group woman. A systematic meta-analysis was conducted to validate the results. After matching was completed, 217 patients on the day 2/3 group were matched with those on the day 5/6 group, and no significant differences in the baseline characteristics were observed between the two groups. The cumulative pregnancy rate (57.14% vs. 53.46%, OR 1.16, 95% CI 0.79–1.70) and cumulative live birth rate (53.00% vs. 49.77%, OR 1.14, 95% CI 0.78–1.66) of day 5/6 embryo transfers were higher than those of day 2/3 embryo transfers, but this difference was not significant. The mean cycles per live birth and mean days per live birth in the day 5/6 group were significantly lower than those in the day 2/3 group. This study demonstrated that day 5/6 embryo transfer is a more cost-effective and time-efficient policy than day 2/3 embryo transfer to produce a live baby.

关键词: blastocyst     embryo transfer     cumulative pregnancy rate     cumulative live birth rate     IVF    

基于智能体的联网级可再生能源接入模拟及需求响应研究 Artical

David P. Chassin,Sahand Behboodi,Curran Crawford,Ned Djilali

《工程(英文)》 2015年 第1卷 第4期   页码 422-435 doi: 10.15302/J-ENG-2015109

摘要:

本文收集并综合了基于智能体的联网级模型准稳态模拟的技术要求、实施和验证方法,特别关注了可再生发电的接入和可控负荷方面的问题。介绍了已接入可控负荷的建模方法,并将其作为联网规划研究的发电资源置于同一控制与经济建模架构中。本文利用系统参数检验模型的性能,这些参数为联网所用的标准参数,其规模接近西部电力协调委员会(WECC) 规定的规模,控制区域约为系统的1/100。检验结果被用于说明和验证所述的方法。

关键词: 联网研究     需求响应     负荷控制     可再生能源接入     基于智能体的模拟     电力市场    

A hybrid fuel cell for water purification and simultaneously electricity generation

《环境科学与工程前沿(英文)》 2023年 第17卷 第1期 doi: 10.1007/s11783-023-1611-6

摘要:

● A novel hybrid fuel cell (F-HFC) was fabricated.

关键词: Flow-through field     Hybrid fuel cell     Polyoxometalates     Water purification     Electricity generation    

Low-carbon technology calls for comprehensive electricity-market redesign

Yang YU

《工程管理前沿(英文)》 2019年 第6卷 第1期   页码 128-130 doi: 10.1007/s42524-019-0020-9

摘要:

The energy transition also calls for electricity- market redesign. Low-carbon technologies will fundamentally reshape the electricity sector. The electricity generation and demand will be significantly unpredictable and uncontrollable thus require for a more sophisticated system operation to guarantee the grid stability and reliability. The higher difficulty induced by the green-technology penetration expose the electricity-market to a higher market-failure risk. Thus, the future low-carbon electricity-market and associated regulation scheme require a comprehensive new design.

关键词: low-carbon technology     electricity-system operation     market design    

Modeling the impact of uncertainty in emissions trading markets with bankable permits

Yongliang ZHANG, Bing ZHANG, Jun BI, Pan HE

《环境科学与工程前沿(英文)》 2013年 第7卷 第2期   页码 231-241 doi: 10.1007/s11783-012-0431-x

摘要: The various forms of uncertainty that firms may face in bankable emission permit trading markets will affect firms’ decision making as well as their market performance. This research explores the effect of increased uncertainty over future input costs and output prices on the temporal distribution of emission. In a dynamic programming setting, the permit price is a convex function of stochastic prices of coal and electricity. Increased uncertainty about future market conditions increases the expected permit price and causes a risk neutral firm to reduce ex ante emissions in order to smooth out marginal abatement costs over time. Finally, safety valves, both low-side and high-side, are suggested to reduce the impact of uncertainty in bankable emission trading markets.

关键词: uncertainty     bankable     emission trading     market performance    

Erratum to: Past review, current progress, and challenges ahead on the cocktail party problem

Yan-min QIAN, Chao WENG, Xuan-kai CHANG, Shuai WANG, Dong YU

《信息与电子工程前沿(英文)》 2018年 第19卷 第4期 doi: 10.1631/FITEE.17e0814

宜万铁路别岩槽隧道地质超前预报综合技术

任少强

《中国工程科学》 2010年 第12卷 第8期   页码 99-106

摘要:

别岩槽隧道为宜万铁路首批开工的重难点、咽喉工程,被列为宜万铁路I级风险隧道。该隧道地质极为复杂,尤其是溶洞和地下暗河非常发育,被形象地称施工中可能有“六冒”现象发生。文章介绍了该隧道利用综合地质超前预报技术,避免了地质灾害事故的发生,保证了安全施工,并结合实践,总结了高风险隧道的地质超前预报综合技术。

关键词: 风险隧道     溶洞     暗河     综合超前预报    

An optimized solar-air degree-day method to evaluate energy demand for poultry buildings in different

Yang WANG, Baoming LI

《农业科学与工程前沿(英文)》 2020年 第7卷 第4期   页码 478-489 doi: 10.15302/J-FASE-2019289

摘要:

The degree-day method is widely used to determine energy consumption but cannot be directly applied to poultry buildings without improvements in its accuracy. This study was designed to optimize the degree-day calculation and proposes a solar-air degree-day method, which can be used to calculate the cooling and heating degree-days and the annual cooling and heating loads under different climate conditions for poultry buildings. In this paper, the solar-air degree-day method was proposed, which considers the effects of solar radiation with different wall orientations and surface colors. Five Chinese cities, Harbin, Beijing, Chongqing, Kunming and Guangzhou, were selected to represent different climate zones to determine the solar-air degree-days. The heating and cooling energy requirements for different climates were compared by DeST (Designer’s Simulation Toolkit) simulation and the solar-air degree-day method. Approaches to decrease energy consumption were developed. The results showed that the maximum relative error was less than 10%, and the new method was not significantly different from the DeST simulation ( >0.05). The accuracy of calculating energy requirements was improved by the solar-air degree-day method in the different climate zones. Orientation and surface color effects on energy consumption need to be considered, and external walls of different orientations should have different surface colors.

关键词: base temperature     energy consumption     solar radiation     orientation     surface color    

Relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth of Guangdong Province in China

Lianhong LV, Hong LUO, Baoliu ZHANG

《能源前沿(英文)》 2012年 第6卷 第4期   页码 351-355 doi: 10.1007/s11708-012-0209-7

摘要: Guangdong is a province with the most electricity consumption (EC) and the fastest economic growth in China. However, there has long been a contradiction between electricity supply and demand in Guangdong and this trend may exist for a long time in the foreseeable future. Therefore, the research on the relationship between EC and economic growth of Guangdong is of very important practical significance to the formulation of relevant policy. In this paper, the econometrics method of granger causality test and co-integration test is used to analyze the relationship between EC and economic growth of Guangdong from 1978 to 2010. The results indicate that there is unidirectional causality between the economic growth and the EC, and the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) and gross industrial output value (GIOV) is the impetus to promote the growth of installedβcapacity (ICAP) and the EC. Therefore, the appropriate restraint of excessive growth of power industry will not necessarily slow down economic growth. There has been a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the EC and the economic growth. When the GDP and GIOV grows 1 unit respectively, the EC of Guangdong province will increase 0.97 and 0.64 unit respectively. The long-term marginal utility of the EC is more than 1.

关键词: co-integration     granger causality     electricity consumption (EC)     economic growth    

仪器仪表产业需要超前发展

《中国工程科学》 2002年 第4卷 第10期   页码 94-94

An approach to locational marginal price based zonal congestion management in deregulated electricity

Md SARWAR,Anwar Shahzad SIDDIQUI

《能源前沿(英文)》 2016年 第10卷 第2期   页码 240-248 doi: 10.1007/s11708-016-0404-z

摘要: Congestion of transmission line is a vital issue and its management pose a technical challenge in power system deregulation. Congestion occurs in deregulated electricity market when transmission capacity is not sufficient to simultaneously accommodate all constraints of power transmission through a line. Therefore, to manage congestion, a locational marginal price (LMP) based zonal congestion management approach in a deregulated electricity market has been proposed in this paper. As LMP is an economic indicator and its difference between two buses across a transmission line provides the measure of the degree of congestion, therefore, it is efficiently and reliably used in deregulated electricity market for congestion management. This paper utilizes the difference of LMP across a transmission line to categorize various congestion zones in the system. After the identification of congestion zones, distributed generation is optimally placed in most congestion sensitive zones using LMP difference in order to manage congestion. The performance of the proposed methodology has been tested on the IEEE 14-bus system and IEEE 57-bus system.

关键词: locational marginal price (LMP)     distributed generation     pool market     deregulated electricity market     congestion management    

Decomposition and decoupling analysis of electricity consumption carbon emissions in China

《工程管理前沿(英文)》   页码 486-498 doi: 10.1007/s42524-022-0215-3

摘要: Electricity consumption is one of the major contributors to greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, we build a power consumption carbon emission measurement model based on the operating margin factor. We use the decomposition and decoupling technology of logarithmic mean Divisia index method to quantify six effects (emission intensity, power generation structure, consumption electricity intensity, economic scale, population structure, and population scale) and comprehensively reflect the degree of dependence of electricity consumption carbon emissions on China’s economic development and population changes. Moreover, we utilize the decoupling model to analyze the decoupling state between carbon emissions and economic growth and identify corresponding energy efficiency policies. The results of this study provide a new perspective to understand carbon emission reduction potentials in the electricity use of China.

关键词: electricity consumption carbon emission measurement     LMDI model     decoupling model     data driven    

标题 作者 时间 类型 操作

Day-ahead electricity price forecasting using back propagation neural networks and weighted least square

S. Surender REDDY,Chan-Mook JUNG,Ko Jun SEOG

期刊论文

Nodal, zonal, or uniform electricity pricing: how to deal with network congestion

Martin WEIBELZAHL

期刊论文

Reactive power deployment and cost benefit analysis in DNO operated distribution electricity markets

Atma Ram GUPTA,Ashwani KUMAR

期刊论文

Propensity score-matched study and meta-analysis of cumulative outcomes of day 2/3 versus day 5/6 embryo

null

期刊论文

基于智能体的联网级可再生能源接入模拟及需求响应研究

David P. Chassin,Sahand Behboodi,Curran Crawford,Ned Djilali

期刊论文

A hybrid fuel cell for water purification and simultaneously electricity generation

期刊论文

Low-carbon technology calls for comprehensive electricity-market redesign

Yang YU

期刊论文

Modeling the impact of uncertainty in emissions trading markets with bankable permits

Yongliang ZHANG, Bing ZHANG, Jun BI, Pan HE

期刊论文

Erratum to: Past review, current progress, and challenges ahead on the cocktail party problem

Yan-min QIAN, Chao WENG, Xuan-kai CHANG, Shuai WANG, Dong YU

期刊论文

宜万铁路别岩槽隧道地质超前预报综合技术

任少强

期刊论文

An optimized solar-air degree-day method to evaluate energy demand for poultry buildings in different

Yang WANG, Baoming LI

期刊论文

Relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth of Guangdong Province in China

Lianhong LV, Hong LUO, Baoliu ZHANG

期刊论文

仪器仪表产业需要超前发展

期刊论文

An approach to locational marginal price based zonal congestion management in deregulated electricity

Md SARWAR,Anwar Shahzad SIDDIQUI

期刊论文

Decomposition and decoupling analysis of electricity consumption carbon emissions in China

期刊论文